Understanding our mission, values, and approach to addressing humanity's most significant challenges.
The Certes Institute exists to provide rigorous, impartial evaluation of catastrophic and existential risks, and to develop strategic frameworks for their mitigation.
We recognise that humanity faces an unprecedented array of potential threats—from advanced artificial intelligence to engineered pandemics, from climate disruption to emerging technologies we cannot yet foresee. These challenges require the same careful, methodical analysis that we apply to more familiar risks, combined with the intellectual honesty to acknowledge deep uncertainties.
Certes brings together expertise in risk assessment, strategic analysis, and specific technical domains to provide decision-makers with the clearest possible picture of the threats we face and the options available to address them.
The principles that guide our work
We apply the highest standards of analytical rigour to every assessment. Our conclusions are grounded in evidence, our uncertainties are clearly stated, and our reasoning is transparent.
Our analysis is free from political, commercial, or ideological influence. We follow the evidence wherever it leads, and we are willing to reach uncomfortable conclusions when the evidence demands it.
Complex risks require clear communication. We translate technical analysis into actionable insights, ensuring that decision-makers have the information they need in a form they can use.
We take seriously the weight of our work. Analysis of catastrophic risks must be conducted with appropriate care, discretion, and awareness of the potential consequences of our findings.
Certes combines traditional risk assessment methodologies with approaches specifically developed for novel and unprecedented threats. Our work typically involves:
We maintain close relationships with technical experts, policymakers, and other researchers in the field, ensuring that our work is informed by the best available knowledge and connected to practical decision-making processes.
Certes Institute will be formally founded in the first week of December 2025. A constitution has been drafted and board members are being appointed. Charitable status is expected to be confirmed in January 2026, with initial philanthropic funding anticipated in late January 2026.
The structure and governance arrangements are designed to be lightweight while complying with the governance requirements of Australia and Tasmania.