Our publications, reports, and analysis on catastrophic and existential risks.
Our primary domains of investigation
Risks from increasingly capable artificial intelligence systems, including technical alignment challenges, deployment and misuse risks, governance frameworks, and international coordination mechanisms.
Biological risks spanning natural pandemic emergence, dual-use research concerns, synthetic biology capabilities, detection and response systems, and international biosecurity governance.
How institutions and governments identify, assess, and respond to catastrophic risks. Development of improved decision-making frameworks, early warning systems, and coordination mechanisms.
Nuclear weapons risks, including deterrence stability, escalation dynamics, arms control frameworks, and the intersection of nuclear risks with other catastrophic risk domains.
Catastrophic climate scenarios, tipping points, and tail risks. Interactions between climate disruption and other systemic risks. Assessment of intervention strategies.
Horizon scanning for emerging technologies with catastrophic risk potential. Methodologies for early assessment of novel technological risks before they become acute.
Priority questions and projects for the coming year
Individual researchers engaged and onboarded
Funding secured for agent foundations research
Summer retreat 2026 held
Consultations with State and Federal governments begin
Permanent site selection completed
Physical institute design underway
Detailed research priorities and project timelines available upon request.
Certes employs a structured approach to risk evaluation that combines quantitative analysis with expert elicitation and scenario planning. Our methodologies are designed to handle the deep uncertainties inherent in catastrophic risk assessment.
Key elements of our approach include:
We are committed to methodological transparency and regularly publish details of our analytical approaches for peer review and community input.